蘑菇视频’s Ray C. Bliss Institute of Applied Politics has released results from the 2024 Buckeye Poll, providing key insights into Ohio voters’ preferences in the upcoming presidential and U.S. Senate races. The poll, conducted by the Center for Marketing and Opinion Research, surveyed 1,241 registered Ohio voters from Sep. 12 to Oct. 24, 2024, and carries a margin of error of ±2.8 percentage points.
Key findings from the poll reveal Ohio’s distinctive electoral leanings:
- Presidential Race: Former President Donald Trump (R) leads Vice President Kamala Harris (D) by 7 percentage points, with 51% support to Harris's 44%.
- Senate Race: Incumbent Senator Sherrod Brown (D) holds a narrow lead over challenger Bernie Moreno (R), with a 46% to 44% advantage.
- Despite expectations of a wide gender gap, both male and female Ohio voters show a preference for Trump, with women supporting him at 49% and men at 53%.
The poll also highlights deep partisan divides in Ohio:
- Partisan Loyalty: Ohio voters are largely consolidated within party lines in both races. Independents lean towards Trump in the presidential race, while they remain more evenly split in the Senate contest between Brown and Moreno.
- Motivations for Party Control: Ohio voters backing the major party candidates want their side to win control of the White House and the U.S. Senate, but for different reasons: the Democratic voters see their party as having better policies and ideas, but the Republican voters view the Democratic incumbents as having done a poor job in office. Candidate quality does not figure prominently as a reason for party control.
- National Condition: Democratic voters tend to view the state of the country favorably, in stark contrast to Republicans who express highly negative views.
Ohio voters are also polarized on policy issues:
- Social Issues: More than 80% of Harris supporters are pro-choice on abortion and support transgender women in women’s sports, while 75% of Trump supporters are pro-life and 60% oppose transgender participation in women’s sports.
- Immigration: 70% of Trump supporters strongly favor tighter immigration controls, while more than 80% of Harris supporters advocate for less restrictive approaches.
Additionally, Ohio voters exhibit strong, polarized sentiments about the candidates, with favorable views toward their own candidate and strongly negative perceptions of their opponents. Concerns such as Trump’s age and legal issues resonate mainly with his detractors, while both sides express fears about threats to democracy posed by the other. Interestingly, Harris’s gender appears to be of little concern to Trump supporters.
About the 2024 Buckeye Poll
The 2024 University of 蘑菇视频 Bliss Institute Buckeye Poll was conducted as an online survey with a random sample of Ohio registered voters drawn from the State of Ohio’s official voter database at intervals in the fall of 2024. Contact was established through matched emails and phone numbers, allowing respondents to participate in the online survey through multiple invitations.
About the Bliss Institute of Applied Politics
Founded to honor UA alumnus and former Republican National Committee chair Ray C. Bliss, the University of 蘑菇视频’s Bliss Institute of Applied Politics is dedicated to fostering civic knowledge and political engagement. With a focus on political parties, grassroots activities and ethical practices, the institute provides bipartisan research, teaching, and experiential learning opportunities.
Media contact:
- J. Cherie Strachan, Director, Ray C. Bliss Institute of Applied Politics; 330-972-4792; jcw39@uakron.edu
- Cristine Boyd, University Communications and Marketing; cboyd@uakron.edu; 330-972-6476